Statistical Analysis of Regional Features in Housing Provision for Internally Displaced Persons in Ukraine: Needs Assessment and Available Capacities

This article presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of the regional features of housing provision for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine. The issue is particularly urgent in the context of large-scale population displacement caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has resulted in several million IDPs, while the demand for housing units is estimated to exceed 500,000. The aim of the study is to assess regional housing needs for IDPs and the available capacities for their provision through an analysis of territorial, economic, and infrastructural factors. The research methodology is based on the integrated use of statistical modeling, cartographic analysis, and data clustering methods, which allowed for a comparative analysis of housing provision across different regions of Ukraine. The findings of the study reveal significant territorial disparities in housing provision for IDPs. The highest demand for housing units was recorded in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. At the same time, the existing housing stock for social needs is critically insufficient at the national scale. The analysis of the institutional capacity of the regions showed that the greatest potential for adapting existing premises lies in Ternopil, Vinnytsia, and Chernivtsi regions. Based on the developed Social Housing Provision Index, a five-level classification of regions was proposed—from critical shortage to relative stability—which allows for differentiated approaches to solving the housing problem of IDPs. Calculations indicate that tens of billions of euros are needed to create the required number of housing units, necessitating the involvement of both state and international funding sources. The practical value of the study lies in the development of scientifically grounded recommendations for optimizing regional housing policy and in the creation of a methodological toolkit for assessing the territorial potential for the placement of IDP housing. The study results may be used in the development of national and regional programs for housing provision for internally displaced persons.