Comparative Analysis of Padua and Caprini Scores in Predicting Venous Thromboembolism Risk Among Nonagenarians: A Cross‐Sectional Study From Rugao

Objective To evaluate and compare the predictive performance of Padua and Caprini scores for venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment in individuals aged ≥ 90 years. Methods A cross‐sectional study was conducted among 511 nonagenarians in Rugao, China. Participants underwent comprehensive clinical assessments including both Padua and Caprini risk scoring. VTE events were monitored through the follow‐up period. The predictive efficacy of both scoring systems was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and risk factors were evaluated through multivariate logistic regression. Results During follow‐up, 31 participants (6.07%) developed VTE. The VTE group demonstrated significantly higher mean Padua scores (4.97 ± 2.21 vs. 4.11 ± 2.45, p = 0.0463), Caprini scores (6.39 ± 2.42 vs. 5.02 ± 2.39, p = 0.0044), and D‐dimer levels (median 2.79 vs. 1.31 mg/L, p = 0.0133) compared to the non‐VTE group. Both scoring systems showed moderate predictive capability, with the Padua score achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.625 (95% CI: 0.533–0.717) and the Caprini score showing an AUC of 0.679 (95% CI: 0.590–0.768). Optimal cutoff values were 3.5 points for the Padua score (sensitivity 80.65%, specificity 50.42%) and 4.5 points for the Caprini score (sensitivity 77.42%, specificity 51.46%). Multivariate analysis identified atrial fibrillation (OR 4.130, 95% CI: 1.667–9.673, p = 0.001) and elevated Caprini score (OR 1.310, 95% CI: 1.073–1.582, p = 0.006) as significant independent risk factors for VTE. Interestingly, hypertension showed an unexpected protective association with VTE risk (OR 0.400, 95% CI: 0.162–0.907, p = 0.035). Conclusions While both Padua and Caprini scores demonstrate moderate predictive value for VTE risk in nonagenarians, their accuracy suggests the need for age‐specific refinement.