Black Sea level variability and its driving factors in the last two decades

Summary While global sea level rise is a major concern for ocean-connected coastal regions, inland seas such as the Black Sea exhibit water level changes primarily governed by regional hydrological and climatic factors. Understanding the drivers of water level variability in the Black Sea is essential due to its sensitivity to river inflow, evaporation, and limited connection to the global ocean. This study, for the first time, integrates satellite altimetry and satellite gravity data from 2003 to 2023 to analyze the long-term and seasonal variations in the Black Sea water levels, as well as local sea level variability and its driving factors. The results indicate that the sea level in the Black Sea experiences a positive trend of 1.04 ± 0.39 mm/yr. This comes, however, with a negative trend on a seasonal scale during autumn (–1.14 ± 0.27 mm/yr), which contrasts with the rising trends observed in other seasons. We found that the loading deformation induced by global mass redistribution contributes to 39 per cent of the Black Sea level trend, leading to an overestimation of actual climate-induced sea level change by 0.41 mm/yr. We further found that the reduction of precipitation and river inflow from surrounding basins leads to an increase in the salinity of the Black Sea, driving the decline in steric sea level. On the other hand, it has also increased the water mass of the Black Sea, compensating for the steric sea level drop.