Ecological and Anthropogenic Drivers of Hairtail Catch Distribution: A Spatial Analysis of the Southern Coastal Waters of South Korea

This study examined the spatial distribution and environmental determinants of hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) catch volumes in the southern coastal waters of South Korea, employing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) based on grid-level data collected from 2020 to 2022. Key explanatory variables included chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolved oxygen, salinity, sea surface temperature, and fishing effort. Spatial autocorrelation was confirmed through Moran’s I test, justifying the application of a spatial econometric framework. Among the environmental factors, salinity exhibited the strongest positive direct effect on catch volumes, whereas dissolved oxygen consistently showed a negative effect. Chlorophyll-a concentration exhibited significant positive effects both within local grids and in neighboring areas. Sea surface temperature also had a modest but significant direct effect on catch volumes. Additionally, higher fishing effort was associated with increased catch volumes, emphasizing the spatial impact of human activities on fishery resources. These findings reveal that hairtail tend to aggregate in high-salinity, low-oxygen environments and respond to seasonal oceanographic variations. Overall, the results highlight the value of spatial econometric models in fisheries research by revealing how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence fish catch through both direct and indirect effects. The spatial framework offers deeper insight into the mechanisms driving hairtail distribution, particularly in ecologically complex regions like the Jeju Strait.