A Practical Guide to Using Futures Methods in Healthcare: Approaches, Applications, and Case Studies (Preprint)

UNSTRUCTURED The paradigm shift of digital health has transformed healthcare delivery, medical practice, the roles of patients and healthcare professionals, as well as the cultural dimensions of care in the 21st century, prompting increased discussions about the future. Unprecedented advancements in technologies, from wearable sensors to artificial intelligence (AI), are directing our attention toward emerging challenges and opportunities. With the accelerating rise of AI and automation, the next paradigm shift of healthcare is imminent: the inclusion of a technological entity as an active participant within the medical team, alongside patients and healthcare professionals. The COVID-19 pandemic, a recent focus on value-based healthcare, and global demographic issues from doctor shortages to aging populations further reinforce that notion. However, discussions around the future of medicine, specialties, or therapeutic areas have often relied on the subjective opinions or perspectives of key opinion leaders rather than on future strategies, policies, visions, and scenarios being grounded in rigorous and established methods. Our goal with this paper is to provide a methodological guide that is supported by case studies, demonstrating how futures methods can be systematically applied in healthcare. By offering practical examples, we intend to empower medical professionals, healthcare leaders, researchers, patients and policymakers with the tools to anticipate and navigate future challenges and opportunities more effectively.