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August 15, 2025International Journal on Advanced Science Engineering and Information Technology

A Bayesian Approach to Spatio-Temporal Extreme Rainfall Modeling: Insights from West Java

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Authors

ARAchi RinaldiADAnik DjuraidahAWAji Hamim Wigena

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Overview

Bayesian modeling reveals optimal performance in predicting extreme rainfall in West Java, suggesting improved disaster management strategies.

Key Points

  • Additive models with spatial-temporal interaction showed the best predictive performance for extreme rainfall.
  • Longitude and latitude were identified as the dominant variables in spatial estimation for rainfall predictions.
  • Evaluation utilized RMSEP and DIC metrics to assess model accuracy in extreme rainfall forecasting.
  • The approach opens doors for improved disaster mitigation through better climate modeling and early warning systems.

Cite This Study

Rinaldi et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68af5bb6ad7bf08b1eadf744https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.15.4.20671
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