Headwater Systems as Green Infrastructure: Prioritising Restoration Hotspots for Sustainable Rural Landscapes

This study aims to assess the role of headwater systems (HS) in enhancing ecological connectivity and supporting Green Infrastructure in the Centre Region of Portugal. Specifically, it identifies restoration opportunity areas within HS by analysing land-use changes over the past 70 years, modelling land-use scenarios to promote ecological resilience, and evaluating connectivity between HS and Natura 2000 sites. The methodology integrates spatial analysis of historical land-use data with connectivity modelling using least-cost path approaches. Results show substantial transformation in HS areas, notably the expansion of eucalyptus plantations and a decline in agricultural land. Approximately 58% of the HS are identified as requiring restoration, including areas within the Natura 2000 network. The connectivity assessment reveals that HS can function as effective ecological corridors, contributing to improved water regulation, soil conservation, gene flow, and wildfire mitigation. A total of 61 potential ecological linkages between Natura 2000 sites were identified. These findings highlight the strategic importance of integrating HS into regional and national Green Infrastructure planning and supporting the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. The study recommends prioritising headwater restoration through multi-scale planning approaches and active involvement of local stakeholders to ensure sustainable land-use management.