Prediction of Carbon Emission Reductions from Electric Vehicles Instead of Fuel Vehicles in Urban Transportation

Advanced transportation, especially electric transportation, plays an increasingly significant role in the reduction of CO2 emissions in urban traffic. A life-cycle CO2 emission model in which traditional fossil fuels and electricity are considered is a key method to analyze the potential of transportation emission reduction. In this study, the life-cycle CO2 emissions of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and electricity generated during the production, transportation, and consumption were modeled and calculated. The influence of coal power generation, coal combustion, seasonal energy consumption, and travel patterns on the CO2 emissions of electric vehicles was discussed. The analysis results show that the life-cycle CO2 emissions of automobile fuels in the process of combustion, processing, mining, and transportation are from the largest to the smallest. If the proportion of coal power generation is reduced to 50% by replacing gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles, emissions can be reduced by about 48.2%. At the same time, the scale of traffic in different months and in different periods of time of the day causes seasonal energy consumption fluctuations and regular fuel consumption variations of electric vehicles. The cyclical carbon reduction effect can be amplified if measures such as replacing fuel cars in spring and fall, and during peak hours, are used.