MaxEnt‐Based Global Distribution Model of an Invasive Benthic Macroinvertebrate Species (Procambarus clarkii), Focusing on Habitat Suitability in South Korea

Invasive alien species are an international problem because they can pose ecological and economic threats. Red swamp crayfish ( Procambarus clarkii ) is a representative invasive invertebrate species that has spread to Europe, North America, and Asia and causes ecosystem disturbances in freshwater and damages water management facilities. This study aimed to evaluate the species distribution and potential spread of P. clarkii , which was presumed to have been human‐mediated introduced into South Korea. To achieve this purpose, this study predicted the global habitable areas of P. clarkii using a maximum entropy model based on global and South Korea‐specific P. clarkii distribution data and five environmental variables. Shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios were used to assess the effects of climate change on distribution. The model showed a good predictive performance for occurrence (AUC = 0.9707; TSS = 0.851; F1 score = 0.869). Temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were the most influential factors for P. clarkii habitat. The model identified most regions with temperate climates and parts with continental and cold semiarid climates as high‐risk areas. Under the SSP scenarios, the model predicted that the range might move into continental regions where habitat suitability is lower than that in temperate regions. In South Korea, habitat suitability was predicted to be high in the southern regions and eastern and western coasts. Also, suitability within the country is expected to increase. This study provides perspectives on P. clarkii invasion risk and highlights the need to prevent human‐mediated introduction.