Russian Influence Operations as a tool of cognitive warfare in German Elections: Analysis of Methods, Objectives, and Effectiveness

Objectives This article examines Russian influence operations targeting German elections as a case study in cognitive warfare. The study examines the operational methods used, including operations in the cyber domain and strategic disinformation. Methods This case study examines operations identified during the 2025 Bundestag election campaign. Data sources include academic articles, OSINT reports from Recorded Future, EEAS EU, DisinfoLab, and content analysis from Telegram, X (formerly Twitter), and Russian state media, such as Sputnik. The study applied the principles of general methodology - analysis and synthesis - which were conducted using the comparative method and the technique of analysis of foundational sources. Results The study found that Russian influence operations are changing modus operandi. The main conclusion of the study is the finding of limited short-term effectiveness of Russian disinformation campaigns in the German context. However, in the long term, such operations may pose a threat to the integrity of Germany's democratic processes. The study identified the need to develop countermeasures, including enhanced cybersecurity measures, comprehensive public awareness campaigns, and increased international cooperation, to address the challenges posed by hybrid threats. Conclusions Despite the progress made in countering cognitive warfare, the analysis of Russia’s evolving disinformation tactics highlights the need for stronger measures to protect democratic societies. It will be crucial to enhance technological defenses, improve interagency cooperation, and increase public awareness to detect and effectively neutralize information threats. Continuous monitoring and adaptation of counter-disinformation strategies will be crucial to keep pace with the evolving AI-driven manipulation techniques.