wl-6987-Estimating from Grouped and Specific Percentile Data the Proportion and the Number of Poor for States and India in 2022-23: Methodological and Pedagogical

The purpose of this exercise is methodological and pedagogical while also providing us with poverty estimates of rural, urban and combined for States and India in 2022-23. The methodological and pedagogical insights are six-fold. First, matching items from Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2012 base) with items from Poverty Level Baskets (PLBs) of Tendulkar and Rangarajan, and assigning PLB weights to the matched items. Second, computing the state-sector-specific (sector denotes rural or urban) PLB-specific inflation index of 2022-23 over 2011-12. Third, calculating the state-sector-specific PLB-specific poverty lines for 2022-23. Fourth, ascribing from grouped and specific percentile data of household consumption expenditure of 2022-23 the lower and upper percentiles and their associated monthly per capita expenditure between which lies the state-sector-specific PLB-specific poverty line. Fifth, estimating state-sector-specific proportion and number of poor. Sixth, using projected population to obtain population shares and applying them to compute state-specific estimates for combined and India-specific estimates for rural, urban and combined. In 2022-23, for India, the updated Tendulkar poverty lines indicate a poverty incidence of 6.4% for rural, 3.1% for urban and 5.3% for combined, while the updated Rangarajan poverty lines indicate a poverty incidence of 9.3% for rural, 9.5% for urban and 9.4% for combined. In addition to non-comparability of consumption expenditure 2022-23 with earlier rounds, one may point out that the CPI is perhaps not capturing the ground reality faced by the poor. In other words, our poverty lines that lie in the per capita per day range of ₹43-₹109 are not adequate to provide for nutrition, basic education, and primary health care needs among others. These suggest that social welfare measures linked to the poverty line need a re-think calling for a broad-based approach.