Retrospection and Vote Choice: Evidence from Cross-Sectional Studies in South Korea

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a political issue that can influence individual political attitudes and cognitions. This study examines the conditions that voters make different retrospective evaluations on incumbents in nationwide legislative election behaviors during the pandemic. The findings demonstrate that the mediated retrospective evaluations of the government's COVID-19 countermeasure only significantly influenced voting intentions for the incumbent governing party just before the election, while general government evaluations show a significant and consistent association with voting intentions in all samples regardless of survey timing. Voters with a higher trust in COVID-19 countermeasures were more likely to vote for the ruling party. Furthermore, as the election approached, even opposition party supporters showed conditional support based on the mediated retrospective evaluations. More research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms underlying voting decisions during pandemics of emerging infectious diseases.