The Emission Reduction Effect of Carbon Asset Market Development: An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

Driven by the "dual carbon" goals, whether the development of the carbon asset market can generate effective emission reduction effects holds significant implications for Chinas green and low-carbon transition as well as global climate governance. This study employs a univariate linear regression model, using data from July 1, 2021, to April 30, 2025, to investigate the emission reduction effect of the carbon asset market in China. It further conducts a sectoral heterogeneity analysis of carbon emissions across six sectors: domestic aviation, ground transportation, industry, international aviation, electricity, and household consumption. The findings reveal that, thus far, the development of Chinas carbon asset market has not exhibited a significant overall emission reduction effect. However, the industrial sector has shown a clear reduction effect. In contrast, carbon emissions from both the domestic and international aviation sectors are subject to the most significant positive driving forces, followed by household consumption, while ground transportation and electricity sectors exhibit relatively weaker positive effects. This study offers a timely exploration of the emission reduction effects of the carbon asset market, and, through heterogeneity analysis, precisely captures the differentiated emission reduction characteristics across sectors. It contributes both theoretical insights and practical guidance for optimizing Chinas domestic carbon market policy framework and for supporting developing countries globally in charting low-carbon transition pathways.