Climate change will create regional dependencies for the blue carbon potential of mangroves

Mangroves are viewed as effective blue carbon solutions due to their substantial carbon stock and sequestration capacity. However, there remains uncertainty as to whether mangroves as nature-based solutions will be resilient under climate change. To assess the future viability of mangroves as part of a larger portfolio of nature-based climate solutions, I first identify the fundamental characteristics of effective blue carbon systems. Second, I assess and predict the impact of climate change on mangroves. Finally, I draw conclusions about the carbon sequestration capacity of mangroves under climate change and offer future directions for both research and mitigation. In sum, the blue carbon potential of mangrove forests in the face of climate change will be highly variable, depending on geographic region, local positioning, and ecological characteristics. Moving forward, it will be critical to not treat mangrove forests as a monolith when incorporating them into a climate portfolio. This paper is the first of its kind to evaluate the effectiveness of mangroves as blue carbon solutions under climate change. As such it will help inform both mangrove conservation and restoration efforts, and mangrove carbon pricing for decades to come.