Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe

The European continent is warming at more than twice the global average rate. Although its overall vulnerability to climate risks is lower than that of other regions, countries in Southern and Eastern Europe face significant human and economic costs due to climate disasters, likely to further increase in the future. We use an ensemble of climate models to project future climates for each country in Europe; identify the country whose present climate best approximates this projection; and use the results to calibrate country-level macroanalyses of natural disasters, with a focus on how investment in adaptative infrastructure can help mitigate the effects of growing climate shocks. We show that adaptation infrastructure can significantly reduce output losses from natural disasters, mitigate medium-term economic scarring, and support sustainable long-term growth.