Retrospective analysis reveals predictive factors for non-benign small pulmonary nodules, indicating limitations of conventional data.
Objective Diagnosis of the nature of image discovered small pulmonary nodules (SPN) has been a clinical challenge. The present investigation explored the disease spectrum of SPN (≤2cm) and attempted to establish the potential predictive models for non-benign SPN (NBSPN) identified from CT screening in a real-world perspective study. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 6166 patients with SPN detected via chest CT scans at our Hospital from January 2017 to September 2022. R language and SPSS software were used for data analyses. Results Of the 6,166 patients with SPN, 15.47% had their diagnosis confirmed pathologically. Among these nodules, NBSPN accounted for 88.7%. In NBSPN, the precursor glandular lesion (PGL) accounted for 14.18%, including 5.83% with atypical adenomatous hyperplasia (AAH) and 94.17% with adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS). Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) accounted for 85.82%, of which 32.07% were microinvasive adenocarcinoma (MIAD) and 67.93% invasive adenocarcinoma (IAD). Using ROC model, none of classical clinical factors had predictive value to the nature of SPN, including age, smoking, CEA level, family history etc. Interestingly, the risk factors for NBSPN predicted by ROC model include: female (OR: 1.842, 95%CI: 1.086-3.125, P=0.024), pure ground-glass opacities(pGGO) (OR: 5.243, 95%CI: 2.640-10.411, P<0.001), and part-solid (PS) (OR: 5.643, 95%CI: 1.970-16.167, P=0.001) in chest imaging, delivering a highly significant AUC value at 0.748 and 0.799 in training and validation set for distinguishing NBSPN from BSPN. Conclusion Conventional clinical data are not sufficient to differentiate NBSPN from BSPN. Factors with high predictive values for NBSPN include female, pGGO and PS.
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