Urban Expansion Projections in Maricá/Rio De Janeiro—RJ: Modeling with Cellular Automata and Sentinel Images for 2030 and 2040

Maricá, located on the eastern coast of Rio de Janeiro, experiences rapid urban growth driven by infrastructure and economic development. This study presents the first high-resolution projection of Maricá's urban expansion (2030–2040), integrating oil industry impacts and protected area constraints. Using Sentinel-2 MSI data (10–20 m resolution) classified via Random Forest on Google Earth Engine (90% accuracy) and a Dinamica EGO Cellular Automata model (5 × 5 Moore neighborhood, calibrated on 2015–2020 transitions), results indicate 18.4% urban growth by 2030 (129 km2), expanding to 151 km2 (+38.5% total) by 2040, with 72% replacing pastures. This supports sustainable urban management strategies.