Modeling the impact of climate change on the climatic suitability of some horticultural crops

Summer and winter vegetable cultivation is widely practiced in Türkiye. Therefore, when unexpected situations such as wars and epidemics occur with climate change, it is important to accurately determine how the cultivation areas of vegetables, which have an important place in the food sector and agriculture, will change due to climate change. This study aimed to estimate how climate change would affect the geographical distribution of tomato, watermelon, onion, and cucumber to be planted in Türkiye in the future by using a climatic suitability model. For this purpose, climatic suitability estimation was done using the EcoCrop module included in the DIVA-GIS program for tomato, watermelon, onion, and cucumber under the results of the HADGEM2_ES model RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the future period (2050s) and the reference period (1950-2000) in Türkiye. The results of the research were evaluated, and it was determined that the climatic suitability for watermelon would be positively affected, while the climatic suitability for tomato, onion, and cucumber would be negatively affected in Türkiye. It is estimated that in the 2050s, climatically suitable areas for tomato (13–16%), onion (3–7%), and cucumber (4–12%) cultivation will decrease, while suitable areas for watermelon (26–35%) cultivation will increase. While it is estimated that Türkiye will fall further behind in tomato and onion production in the world rankings in the 2050s, the rankings for watermelon and cucumber will not change. The changes in production due to the decrease in climatic suitability for tomatoes and cucumbers and the increase in climatic suitability for watermelon will impact the economy. It is recommended that production be based on these estimates to maintain the diversity of vegetables on our tables in the future and to ensure the sustainability of these products.