Seizing an Opportunity or Reacting to a Threat? Analysing the Syrian Intervention in Lebanon Through the Lens of the Asad Regime’s Ontological Security

On 31 May 1976, Syrian soldiers entered Lebanon, marking a significant escalation in Syria's involvement in the Lebanese Civil War. The rationale behind Syria's shift from limited engagement to full-scale intervention is widely debated. While the dominant 'opportunity' perspective suggests Syria sought to exploit Lebanon's chaos, it overlooks Syria's support for the right-wing camp and the timing of its actions. This article argues that Asad's decision was driven by concerns for his regime's ontological security, as Lebanon's possible fragmentation into sectarian enclaves directly threatened the regime's identity, which was rooted in Asad's image as the modern embodiment of pan-Syrianism.