Mapping the last mile: micro-stratification for sustained visceral leishmaniasis elimination in Bangladesh

Background Bangladesh became the first country to achieve World Health Organization (WHO) validation for eliminating visceral leishmaniasis (VL, Kala-azar) as a public-health problem in 2023. Sustaining this milestone demands a post-validation surveillance strategy that concentrates its efforts on residual transmission foci and deploys resources efficiently. We therefore conducted the country’s first Mouza-level micro-stratification to refine risk maps and guide targeted interventions. Methods The study used routinely reported VL line-list data (2017-2022) from the national DHIS2 platform for every Upazila that recorded ≥1 VL case. Each Mouza—the smallest administrative unit—was categorised as high (≥3 new VL cases), moderate (2 cases), low (1 case) or non-endemic (0 cases) over the six-year period. Hot-spot maps were created in Python. Associations between endemicity (endemic vs non-endemic) and mean annual climate variables were tested with chi-squared statistics, yielding odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Historical sand-fly density data from 51 purposively sampled Mouzas were compared across endemicity strata using one-way ANOVA. Among 15,982 Mouzas in 119 case-reporting Upazilas, only 428 (2.7%) reported ≥1 new VL case between 2017 and 2022. High-endemic Mouzas (n = 29; 0.18%) accounted for 36% of total incident cases and clustered primarily in Mymensingh, Dhaka and Rajshahi divisions. However, year-on-year mapping showed contraction of endemic Mouzas with no sustained new foci. Conclusions VL transmission in Bangladesh is now intensely focal, confined to <3% of Mouzas within historically endemic Upazilas. Restricting surveillance, IRS and active case detection through micro-stratification of endemic areas could largely cut vector-control costs while safeguarding elimination. Periodic updating Mouza-level risk maps and integrating high-resolution climate and entomological data will be essential to prevent resurgence and can serve as a model for other countries nearing VL elimination.