Predicting State Testing Proficiency with Preschool Assessments

Many children in the United States fail to meet proficiency benchmarks on mathematics and English Language Arts (ELA) tests in elementary school despite those tests being related to future outcomes. Thus, strategies are needed to identify and support children at risk for failing to reach proficiency in mathematics and ELA that consider multiple school readiness domains. The current study tested predictive relations between preschool skills and proficiency status on third and fourth-grade state tests for mathematics and ELA using data from 431 children. Three backward selection ordinal logistic regressions were run for each outcome using nine assessments covering mathematics, language, literacy, and executive function (EF) skills. Models using (a) fall scores, (b) spring scores, and (c) the average and change scores across the preschool year consistently identified early mathematics (ORs from 1.34 to 2.32) and EF (ORs from 1.23 to 1.40) as strong predictors of proficiency in both mathematics and ELA. Children's vocabulary skills (ORs from 1.29 to 1.55), but not early literacy skills, were consistently strong predictors of proficiency in ELA. Implications for policy and practice to improve children's early learning outcomes are discussed.