Mathematical modelling of two-strains seasonal dengue fever and application in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that is increasingly making headlines in tropical regions, including Burkina Faso, which has been affected by a dengue outbreak since early 2023. In this paper, we develop a general compartmental two-strains model on the dynamics of dengue transmission with particular focus on the seasonality of the virus based on climatic factors. Climate factors such as temperature and rainfall have a major influence on dengue dynamics. The present work shows the effects of temperature on the dynamics of dengue fever. Seasonality is introduced by a few biological parameters, such as adequate contact rate and mortality rate of vectors properly modeled as a function of temperature. Mathematical analysis proves that the model is well-posed and admits a periodic disease-free equilibrium and a periodic endemic equilibrium which are stable. Numerical simulations were carried out using temperature data in Ouagadougou and results are in accordance with the theoretical ones.