Temperature effect on the periodic dengue epidemic model and the optimal control strategy

With the ongoing global outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever, a thorough understanding of how environmental factors influence disease transmission dynamics is crucial for epidemic prediction and control. This study developed a dynamic periodic transmission model incorporating temperature-dependent characteristics of mosquito life history, based on the critical role of climatic factors in mosquito-borne disease transmission, to systematically elucidate the regulatory effects of seasonal temperature variations on dengue transmission dynamics. Model validation demonstrated a high degree of consistency between the simulated results and the actual 2022 dengue outbreak in Singapore. The research results show that: the basic reproduction number R 0 exhibits high sensitivity to temperature changes; under both constant and seasonally varying temperature conditions, three critical epidemiological characteristics of dengue transmission (final epidemic size, peak number of infections, and epidemic duration) are significantly modulated by temperature. Optimal control analysis further revealed that the timing and strategic selection of intervention measures have decisive impacts on epidemic control effectiveness. This study not only provides important theoretical support for the scientific prevention and control of dengue fever, but also significantly advances our understanding of dengue virus transmission mechanisms.