Simulation of Carbon Sinks and Sources in China’s Forests from 2013 to 2023

Chinese forest ecosystems are key carbon sinks that significantly contribute to lowering carbon emissions. Accurate Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) estimations are essential for evaluating their carbon sequestration capabilities and overall health. This study employed the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth-Satellites (3-PGS) and soil heterotrophic respiration models to simulate China’s forest carbon sinks and sources distribution from 2013 to 2023. Then, climatic factors influencing NEP changes were examined through the application of a geographical detector model. The net carbon sequestered was 1.71 ± 0.09 PgC with an annual average of 0.156 ± 0.0071 PgC, signifying a substantial carbon sink in China’s forest. The annual NEP was highest in evergreen broadleaf forests (352.12 gC m−2) and lowest in deciduous needleleaf forests (148.31 gC m−2). NEP in China’s forests increased by a rate of 1.67 gC m−2 annually, with most regions exhibiting a 275.32 gC m−2 annual carbon sink. The geographical detector model analysis showed that solar radiation, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit were the main drivers of NEP change, while temperature and frost days had a secondary influence. Furthermore, the interaction between solar radiation and temperature variables showed the greatest impact. This study can enhance the understanding of carbon sink and source distribution in China, serve as a reference for regional carbon cycle research, and provide key insights for policymakers in developing effective climate strategies.