Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Potential Distribution Patterns of Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. Under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbances

Under the context of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of extreme low-temperature events poses a severe challenge to plant distribution and ecosystem stability. The arid and semi-arid regions of Northwestern China, as a sensitive response area to global change, have proven to possess significant development potential with their unique desert vegetation systems. This study focuses on the ecological adaptability mechanisms of Nitraria tangutorum Bobr., a key species of the desert ecosystem in Northwestern China, and systematically analyzes the evolution patterns of its geographical distribution under the coupled effects of climate change and human activities through a MaxEnt model. The research conclusions are as follows: (i) This study constructs a Human Footprint-MaxEnt (HF-MaxEnt) coupling model. After incorporating human footprint variables, the AUC value of the model increases to 0.914 (from 0.888), demonstrating higher accuracy and reliability. (ii) After incorporating human footprint variables, the predicted area of the model decreases from 2,248,000 km2 to 1,976,000 km2, with the High Suitability experiencing a particularly sharp decline of up to 79.4%, highlighting the significant negative impact of human disturbance on Nitraria tangutorum. (iii) Under the current climate baseline period, solar radiation, precipitation during the wettest season, and mean temperature of the coldest month are the core driving factors for suitable areas of Nitraria tangutorum. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of Nitraria tangutorum is significantly positively correlated with carbon emission levels. Under the SSP370 and SSP585 emission pathways, the area of potential distribution reaches 172.24% and 161.3% of that in the current climate baseline period. (v) Under future climate scenarios, the distribution center of potential suitable areas for Nitraria tangutorum shows a dual migration characteristic of “west–south” and “high altitude”, and the mean temperature of the hottest month will become the core constraint factor in the future. This study provides theoretical support and data backing for the delineation of habitat protection areas, population restoration, resource management, and future development prospects for Nitraria tangutorum.