Assessing the Accuracy of Gridded Precipitation Products in the Campania Region, Italy

Accurate precipitation data are essential for hydrological modeling, climate studies, and water resource management. Indeed, there is an increasing focus on understanding shifts in precipitation events to monitor the risks of floods and droughts, as well as to ensure sustainable water resource management. This study compares four reanalysis and satellite precipitation products (ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, PERSIANN, and TerraClimate) with ground data from 2003 to 2022. Among the datasets evaluated, ERA5-Land has the best performance (overall) in reproducing ground data, with a minimal mean bias error (MBE) of 1.91 mm, the highest correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.93), and the most favorable Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.93). In contrast, CHIRPS, PERSIANN, and TerraClimate significantly underestimate precipitation as compared to ground data. The categorical metrics also highlight ERA5-Land’s superior performance in identifying wet months. Spatial analysis shows that ERA5-Land and other datasets generally exhibit agreement regarding precipitation patterns. However, PERSIANN displays notable variances, particularly in northern regions, where it overestimates precipitation. To investigate possible changes in precipitation patterns, a longer period (1983–2022) is selected for trend analysis based on gridded precipitation products. Sen’s slope analysis does not reveal any significant annual precipitation trend. In autumn, the PERSIANN dataset indicates a significant increasing trend of +1.81 mm/year, which is also confirmed by ERA5-Land (+2.68 mm/year) and CHIRPS (+1.34 mm/year), although without statistical significance. The findings emphasize the need for more sophisticated satellite algorithms and integration with ground observations to improve precipitation accuracy.