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September 5, 2025Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for pulmonary tuberculosis in presumptive tuberculosis patients in Tigray, northern Ethiopia

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Authors

GGGebremedhin Berhe GebregergsMekelle UniversityGBGebretsadik BerheAdigrat UniversityKGKibrom Gebreslasie GebrehiwotMekelle University

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Implication

Multicenter cross-sectional study found a risk prediction model that indicates screening for pulmonary tuberculosis in presumptive patients.

Key Points

  • The risk prediction model shows a discrimination accuracy of 0.82, indicating its effectiveness for identifying pulmonary tuberculosis.
  • Among 907 respondents, 155 had confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis, highlighting the ongoing TB challenge in the region.
  • The model uses multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors, providing useful predictions in resource-limited healthcare settings.
  • With a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 68.9%, the model promises to enhance TB screening in primary healthcare facilities.

Cite This Study

Gebregergs et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68bb5f3e6d6d5674bcd0365ahttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-17959-2
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1A qualitative study to inform the development of a decision support tool for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Tigray, Ethiopia2024 · 2 citations
  2. 2Cost-effectiveness of TB diagnostic technologies in Ethiopia: a modelling study2024 · 6 citations
  3. 3Lived experience of healthcare providers amidst war and siege: a phenomenological study of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia2024 · 10 citations
  4. 4The impact of war on the health system of the Tigray region in Ethiopia: an assessment2021 · 250 citations
  5. 5Predictors contributing to the estimation of pulmonary tuberculosis among adults in a resource-limited setting: A systematic review of diagnostic predictions2024 · 4 citations