A Flurry of Infectious Disease Modeling Tools During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Considerations for Future Selection

Infectious disease modeling surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, with numerous epidemiological models developed to shape both research and public policy. The abundance of available models—developed with diverse characteristics and modeling objectives—gave users plenty of model selection options; however, little guidance was available for selecting an appropriate epidemiological model. In recognition of this need for guidance, this work describes the development of a decision framework for appropriate model selection. To serve as both an example and a starting point for model users, we walk through the creation and use of a decision framework to evaluate key considerations for selecting a forward-looking epidemiological model intended to inform policy. Our assessment includes 43 models and modeling platforms that have been or could be used to model infectious disease. The framework developed for this assessment focused on assessing each model’s strengths and weaknesses in terms of flexibility and customization, the ability to implement pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigations, and visualization capabilities. By providing a decision framework and demonstrating its use, we aim to support better decision-making and stronger trust between public health institutions and the constituents they serve.