Informal labor security in India and external and internal shocks: assessing the impacts of climate change, COVID-19, migration and political collusion

Purpose This study investigates how climate change and COVID-19 as external shocks and migration and political collusion as internal shocks have affected the informal labor security in India. Design/methodology/approach Using district-level data from 2018 to 2021, we employ the fractional response regression model to examine the effects of these shocks. Further, the generalized quantile regression examines how external shocks affect the spatio-temporal variations of labor security dimensions. Findings The findings reveal that informal labor security has been immune to the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting proactive actions by the government to guard against the shocks. However, climatic shocks increase the risks. The political collusion adversely affects the income and empowerment securities, indicating the clientelistic intent of the political dispensation. However, informal labor security seems to have improved in migration-prone regions, signifying internal migration as a coping strategy against risks. Originality/value This study contributes to labor security research in multiple ways. It identifies potential indicators and methods to formulate an informal labor security index, capturing spatial variations. Estimating the impact of climate change and the pandemic carries significance from a public policy perspective. Establishing the possibility of clientelism adds new contexts to the debate on political patronage. That internal migration is a coping strategy against risks is a useful revelation.