Impacts of Urbanization on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Trade-Offs and Synergies Among Climate-Related Ecosystem Services

Under the context of rapid urbanization and climate change, urban ecosystem services (ES) have undergone dramatic transformations. Elucidating the trade-off and synergy relationships among ES and quantifying how urbanization mediates these relationships are critical to achieving urban sustainability. Focusing on Shanghai during 2000–2020, we quantified three climate-related ES—water yield (WY), urban cooling (Heat Mitigation Index, HMI) and carbon storage (CS)—with the InVEST model. We then examined the spatio-temporal evolution of these services, analyzed their trade-offs and synergies, and examined the underlying urbanization drivers. Results show that total WY increased by 76%, with peak volumes concentrated in the central districts; HMI declined, with low-value zones spreading inward; CS rose and became spatially more homogeneous. WY–HMI trade-offs intensified, whereas CS–HMI were synergistic (r = 0.33–0.61) except in core districts where built-up expansion created trade-offs. CS–WY trade-offs weakened, becoming synergistic in most districts by 2020. HMI loss was driven by GDP and industrial output (p < 0.05). Per-capita green-space area was positively correlated with HMI but exerted no significant influence on CS or WY, highlighting the limitations of ecological interventions focused on single ES enhancement.