Trade-Offs and Synergies Among Habitat, Water, and Carbon Services Driven by Urbanization: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Chang-Zhu-Tan City Cluster

Understanding the evolution of ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and carbon storage (CS) in the Chang-Zhu-Tan City Cluster (CZTCC) of China from 2000 to 2020. Results showed that rapid urbanization—where construction land expanded from 2.78% to 7.40% of the area—was the primary driver of ES degradation. Specifically, low-quality habitat (HQ) areas expanded by 162%, and total carbon storage (CS) declined by 1.83% (11.78 Tg C), while regional WY fluctuated with precipitation. Inter-service relationships also became more conflictual: the trade-off between HQ and WY intensified (Pearson’s R strengthened from −0.696 to −0.735), a persistent trade-off between WY and CS was observed (e.g., R = −0.607 in 2020), while the HQ-CS synergy remained stable and strong (R > 0.88). These findings highlight escalating ecological conflicts and offer a robust scientific basis for optimizing land use to manage ES trade-offs and promote sustainable development.