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September 10, 20250 citationsOpen Access

Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs

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DVDirk-Jan Van de VenCRClàudia Rodés-BachsTRThéo Rouhette

Key Points

  • The study reveals that applying a broader evaluation of policy priorities improves mitigation outcomes.
  • Findings indicate that SDG-balanced portfolios can outperform standard least-cost scenarios across all indicators.
  • By integrating Integrated Assessment Models with portfolio analysis, this work highlights critical trade-offs for climate action.
  • Simultaneous evaluation of various development priorities is crucial to guide effective climate transition strategies.

Abstract

Abstract Limiting global warming to well-below 2°C necessitates profound decarbonization, but how to distribute mitigation efforts over sectors remains a widely debated issue. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) traditionally rely on "Least-Cost" optimization to answer this question, the resulting sectoral allocations vary widely and ignore impacts on other potential policy objectives. Connecting an IAM with portfolio analysis, this study applies a novel methodology to evaluate how sector-specific mitigation actions impact key indicators from Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty, health, water, economy, and land, and to identify Pareto-optimal and Paris-compliant mitigation portfolios that reveal the trade-offs between other sustainable development priorities. Furthermore, we define "SDG-balanced" portfolios that outperform standard least-cost scenarios across all five SDG indicators for an equivalent carbon budget. Our findings demonstrate that the simultaneous evaluation of a broader set of policy priorities is crucial to provide truly policy-relevant guidance for the climate transition.

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Cite This Study

Ven et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68c183f09b7b07f3a060fa15https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1
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