Unpacking the influence of group dynamics on tourism behaviour: a study of social media opinions, sentiments and destination popularity

Social media discourse increasingly influences tourism behaviour at environmentally sensitive destinations. This study examines how group-level online discourse dynamics shape visitation to these sites, focusing on two metrics: consistency of group opinions (CGO) and consistency of group sentiments (CGS). Guided by social influence theory (SIT) and group polarisation effect (GPE), this study operationalises CGO and CGS as entropy-based measures of evaluative and emotional alignment in user-generated content (UGC) and uses Dianchi Lake in China, an ecologically vulnerable destination, as the empirical context. Poisson regressions on monthly Douyin data with a one-month lag show that higher CGS is associated with reduced tourism behaviour in the subsequent month. In contrast, CGO does not directly influence tourism behaviour; its effect depends on the popularity of the destination and is weakened when destination popularity is high, suggesting information dilution and reputation buffering. Robustness checks with Today's Headlines data and across sub-periods confirm these results. This study advances digital tourism research by integrating affective and cognitive social influence mechanisms and identifying boundary conditions related to platform and popularity. It also offers practical insights for monitoring online sentiment and managing reputation at sensitive destinations.