Implementation Pathways for Carbon Emission Reduction Through Environmental Regulations: Synergistic Mechanisms of Industrial Intelligence and Green Technological Innovation

In the context of the “dual-carbon” goal to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy, the mechanism of environmental regulation as a core policy tool for carbon emission reduction remains theoretically controversial. Based on this, this paper uses panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2015 to 2022 and adopts a two-way fixed-effects analysis method to examine the direction and intensity of the impact of environmental regulations on carbon emissions, introducing industrial intelligence and green technological innovation as mediating variables. Research indicates that (1) for every 1-unit increase in the intensity of environmental regulation, carbon emissions are reduced by about 0.9866 units on average, and its carbon emission reduction effect is more significant in the eastern region, where the proportion of secondary industry is medium and high, as well as in non-technology-intensive regions. (2) Industrial intelligence and green technological innovation play a partial mediating role between environmental regulations and carbon reduction. (3) After categorizing green technology innovations, it is found that environmental regulations do not significantly incentivize substantive green technology innovations, but they can contribute to carbon emission reduction by promoting the development of strategic green technology innovations. (4) The analysis of spatial effects shows that carbon emissions in China’s provinces are characterized by significant spatial agglomeration. Enforcement of environmental regulations also exerts a suppressive effect on carbon emissions in adjacent provinces, and its carbon emission reduction effect is characterized by “total effect > indirect effect > direct effect”. Compared with existing studies, this paper elucidates the transmission mechanism whereby environmental regulation achieves carbon emission reductions through industrial intelligence and green technological innovation, thereby contributing a novel analytical framework for examining regulatory impacts on carbon emissions while furnishing actionable policy implications for facilitating socioeconomic greening and low-carbon transitions.