On forecasting the risks of information system integrity violations in the absence of complete data on subsystems reservation multiplicity

Purpose: The risks of violating the integrity of an information system depend on the conditions of uncertainty and the threats associated with these conditions for each of the subsystems. From the point of view of mathematical modeling, the decomposition of the system into functional subsystems (elements) does not cause difficulties. The problem is to forecast risks when in reality there is a lack of complete data on subsystems reservation multiplicity for information processing, storage and recovery. The lack of complete data does not allow quantifying risks with a sufficient degree of adequacy. However, if there is a certain certainty that there is some kind of double, triple or more reservation multiplicity, the proposed approach makes it possible in principle to make an estimation of certain risks. Objective: to present a probabilistic approach to assessing the lower and upper quantitative limits of the forecasted risks of system integrity violations in the absence of complete data on the redundancy of subsystems. Results. The proposed approach to risk forecasting makes it possible to conduct scientific and practical research at the level of analyzing the time distribution function between critical disturbances in each subsystem (element) and the system as a whole in cases where there is only some data, guesses and/or some assurances that in specific subsystems there are two, three or more times redundancy takes place (or possible options are being considered at the early stages of conception and design). The appendix provides a risk forecasting method for a typical technology for countering various threats using periodic diagnostics of system integrity. Practical value. Based on the results of risk forecasting, it is possible to identify "bottlenecks" in the system and rational ways to reduce risks. The practical value of the proposed approach is illustrated by an example.