Assessing the industrial pollution risk potential to farmland soil environment based on spatialization: A single-year study in China

Industrial activities are major contributors to farmland soil pollution, posing considerable risk potential to the soil environment. A quantitative and spatial assessment of the industrial pollution-related risk potential will provide critical insights into their characteristics, supporting methodological advancements and practical applications in soil environmental management. This study develops a systematic evaluation framework to assess the risk potential of industrial pollution to the farmland soil environment. Using key polluting industrial enterprises as the fundamental assessment units, the framework integrates indicatorization and spatialization functions to quantify and map pollution risk potential. To capture the linkage between industrial sources and farmland receptors of the risk potential, enterprise-level risk potential outcomes are spatially overlaid with high-resolution farmland distribution data, achieving a cross-identification of farmland soil areas impacted by industrial pollution risk potential. The framework was applied in a nationwide case study involving 27,703 polluting enterprises across nine key industries in China. Results showed that industrial pollution risk potential threatened approximately 4.34 % of the country's farmland soil area. Among three impact pathways, emissions of industrial waste gases emerged as the dominant route by which risk potential reaches farmland soils. Severe risk potential was concentrated in economically developed and industrialized regions, including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta. Further analyses revealed spatial and sectoral heterogeneity in the industrial pollution risk potential, highlighting the need for region-specific regulatory strategies. The study concluded with practical recommendations for enhancing the industrial pollution risk potential modules and advancing the integration of farmland soil environmental risk management with locally adapted agricultural practices.