Reconstructing Net Primary Productivity in Northern Greater Khingan Range Using Tree Rings

As critically important global carbon sinks, the net primary productivity (NPP) of boreal forests is crucial for understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, a lack of long-term, high-resolution data has hindered progress in this field. In this study, we used a standardized tree ring chronology of Larix gmelinii to identify the dominant factors driving NPP changes in the Northern Greater Khingan Range, applying both Pearson correlation coefficients and SHAP importance values. We then integrated XGBoost and Extreme Random Forest (ERF) models to reconstruct interannual forest NPP across the region from 1968 to 2020. Our results reveal a significant correlation between NPP and tree radial growth, with both processes dominated by growing season drought. The combination of machine learning and tree ring methods proved to be a reliable approach, with the XGBoost model achieving higher reconstruction accuracy than the ERF model. The reconstructed NPP series showed strong regional correlation with MODIS NPP products (r > 0.6) and revealed interdecadal cycles of 10, 28, and 49 years, as well as shorter periodicities of 2–8 and 15–18 years. This study establishes a novel framework for high-resolution NPP reconstruction and clarifies the response mechanisms of the boreal forest carbon cycle to climate change.