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Impact of the South China Sea Conflict on Trade between China and ASEAN Countries

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Observational analysis found the South China Sea conflict does not disrupt trade between ASEAN and China, indicating strong economic ties persist.

The SCS conflict had no impact on ASEAN countries' trade with China, suggesting economic ties remain strong despite territorial disputes.
Evidence shows ASEAN's GDP, China's GDP, and exchange rates can enhance trade while distance and duty hinder it.
Analysis used generalized method of moments (GMM) across trade data from 2005 to 2022 for China and 10 Southeast Asian countries.
Findings suggest that economic factors outweigh the potential disruptions caused by SCS territorial conflicts.

Anwar et al. (2025) studied this question.

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Observational analysis found the South China Sea conflict does not disrupt trade between ASEAN and China, indicating strong economic ties persist.