Modeling the cancellation of inner-city leisure trips to different destinations in future pandemics: employing psychological factors based on previous personal experiences

As pandemics can be classified as crises, it is essential to develop predictions for future pandemic situations. Previous research focusing on the impact of pandemics on travel behavior was primarily conducted during crises. However, individuals may react differently to similar pandemic situations in the future based on their knowledge, experience and attitudes. Considering a hypothetical future pandemic, this paper investigates the factors that influence whether people would continue their inner-city leisure activities or cancel them. A stated preference survey, incorporating psychological and socioeconomic variables, was designed to examine individuals' travel behavior for various leisure destinations. To identify the impact of specific destinations on decision-making, a general model was first developed, followed by four binary logit models for indoor public, outdoor public and private leisure destinations. We found that psychological factors, especially personal concern about health risks, social responsibility and value-driven beliefs like altruism, play a major role in shaping people's choices. Those who strongly believed in protecting others or saw COVID-19 as a serious threat were much more likely to cancel their leisure trips. These findings may shed light on the existing literature and assist city managers in making better decisions regarding the operation of leisure destinations during future pandemics.