Physical Drivers of Salinity in a Southern Baltic Coastal Lagoon: A Selective Modeling Approach

Coastal lagoons provide vital ecological functions, supporting diverse flora and fauna while being highly sensitive to environmental changes. In the southern Baltic Sea, the Puck Lagoon is a hydrologically distinct subregion of the Gulf of Gdańsk characterized by variable exchange of water with the outer bay and substantial freshwater inflows. Its benthic communities are particularly sensitive to salinity, yet the processes shaping this parameter remain insufficiently understood. In situ measurements in summer 2020 revealed relatively high salinity in the lagoon (up to 7.7 PSU) compared to the adjacent outer bay (7.2–7.4 PSU), with localized reductions near the Kuźnica Passage and the Reda River mouth. As a first step toward explaining the hydrodynamic processes responsible for these anomalies, we applied a high-resolution, two-dimensional model focused on three fundamental physical drivers: river inflows, open-boundary exchange, and wind forcing. These processes represent the primary controls on salinity in shallow lagoons and provide a basis for evaluating additional mechanisms. The model reproduced observed patterns with a mean absolute error of 0.15 PSU, confirming that this selective framework captures the key features of salinity variability and establishes a baseline for future three-dimensional modeling that will incorporate further processes such as vertical mixing, precipitation, and evaporation.