Wildfire Risk Prediction and Assessment in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, California

Wildfires represent a critical hazard in Southern California, threatening life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. This study integrates diverse geospatial datasets like historic fire perimeters, topography, climate, soil, and building footprints to assess wildfire risk in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Using ArcGIS Pro, a weighted overlay analysis was implemented, where environmental factors such as vegetation, slope, aspect, and climate were normalized and assigned weights based on expert judgment. The final risk map classified the study area into low, moderate, and high-risk zones. Results reveal that approximately 25.1% of buildings fall within high-risk areas, 54.2% in moderate-risk zones, and 20.7% in low-risk areas, highlighting significant exposure of built infrastructure. Model validation using historical fire perimeters achieved 78.96% accuracy, with a kappa coefficient of 0.43, confirming reasonable predictive reliability. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted mitigation strategies, such as restricting urban development in high-risk corridors, enhancing defensible space standards, and updating building codes. The approach provides a replicable GIS-based framework for integrating environmental and exposure data into wildfire planning, offering actionable insights for emergency managers, land-use planners, and policymakers to improve community resilience under increasing wildfire threats.