Diagnostic and prognostic performance of PAK1 methylation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver transplantation

DNA methylation is under investigation as an early diagnostic biomarker for cancers such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). p21-activated protein kinase 1 (PAK1) demonstrates a high methylation tendency in HCC. We assessed the diagnostic and prognostic performance of PAK1 methylation in liver transplantation (LT) recipients with and without HCC. To assess PAK1 methylation, stored pretransplant blood samples from LT recipients were analyzed by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction. This study included 274 patients with HCC and 100 control patients without the disease. Ten-year survival rates in the HCC and control groups were 60.5% and 80.6%, respectively (P=0.001). The 10-year HCC recurrence rate was 39.0%. Ten-year survival rates in the HCC recurrence and nonrecurrence groups were 13.3% and 91.2%, respectively (P<0.001); median PAK1 methylation levels in the control and HCC groups were 50.0 and 108.0 copies (P=0.102). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.599, and the Youden J index was 0.199, indicating 57.9% sensitivity and 62.0% specificity at a cutoff of 78 copies. With a cutoff of 5 copies, sensitivity was 94.1% and specificity was 14.0%. The positive likelihood ratio was 1.09 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.42, indicating diagnostic accuracy below α-fetoprotein and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II. PAK1 cutoffs of 5 and 10 copies did not affect HCC recurrence, but a cutoff of 2 copies appeared associated with lower recurrence. These data suggest that PAK1 methylation is not a clinically useful biomarker for HCC in LT recipients. New DNA methylation biomarkers are required for early diagnosis.