Potential refugia on the Tibetan Plateau during the last glacial maximum

The prehistoric human habitation of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is well evidenced by the archaeological record, but poorly constrained in time and space. To test the plausibility of in situ survival during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the coldest periods of the Pleistocene, this paper gauges the effects of LGM conditions and varying local ice coverage on the climate. Three different climate model scenarios are generated, and their outputs are used to drive vegetation simulations. This allows us to evaluate 10 archaeological sites that show evidence of human activity either pre- or post-LGM as possible human refugia. The results show that the higher the level of ice coverage on the plateau, the colder and drier the climate becomes, and barren unproductive land extends farther south. However, there are sites that remain habitable in all scenarios, with the southern and northeastern plateau identified as the areas with the highest likelihood of refugia during the LGM, specifically at the locations of Baishiya Karst Cave and Siling Co. There is a high probability of the TP being habitable during the LGM, as even the scenario with the most ice yields some regions with favourable conditions that are within the habitability criteria.