Impacts of Climate Extremes on Housing Quality: A Three-Decade Analysis of Structural, Thermal, and Hydrological Stress in Nigerian Metropolitan Areas

In Nigeria's rapidly urbanizing metropolitan areas, housing quality is increasingly vulnerable to climate extremes. This study quantifies the impacts of erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and intense winds on housing across Bida, Kontagora, and Minna from 1993–2023. We employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating 30-year meteorological records, satellite-derived urban growth data using the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and structured household surveys. Meteorological analysis revealed rainfall intensification and heightened flood risks, particularly in Bida and Kontagora. While Minna showed significant inter-annual rainfall variability (R2=0.07), post-2010 temperature increases were most pronounced in Kontagora (R2=0.70), exacerbating building thermal stress. Furthermore, rising wind gust intensity (mean annual peak: 26.58 knots in Kontagora) points to growing structural vulnerability. NDBI analysis confirmed that rapid urban expansion has increased impervious surfaces, amplifying hydrological stress. A significant positive correlation was established between climatic variables and housing quality degradation (r=0.58,p=0.029). Survey data identified critical resilience gaps, highlighting the urgent need for passive design strategies, climate-resilient materials, and effective flood management. These findings provide a crucial empirical basis for revising building codes and urban planning policies to foster climate resilience in vulnerable Nigerian cities.