Modelling, Forecasting, and Risk Assessment of Water Supply Resilience in the West African Aviation Industry: Evidence from Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Nigeria

Airports in developing regions increasingly face challenges of inadequate water supply, which undermines operational reliability, passenger safety, and public health. This study investigated the water supply system of Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMA), Lagos—the busiest airport in West Africa—through laboratory analyses, operational data, and statistical modelling. Water samples were collected once from four points (raw intake, clarifier, treated outlet, and staff boreholes) and analysed for physicochemical and microbial quality using APHA, WHO, and NSDWQ standards. Results revealed effective treatment, with turbidity (≤0.55 NTU), iron (≤0.01 mg/L), and microbial counts compliant with WHO guidelines. However, conductivity remained consistently elevated (4.6–4.9 mS/cm), indicating salinity intrusion. Installed storage capacity (2.87 million m³/day; effective 2.44 million m³/day) marginally exceeded current demand (2.03 million m³/day), providing only a narrow resilience margin. Forecasting with compound growth modelling projected deficits by 2028 under baseline passenger growth (8.31% annually), and by 2027 under highgrowth conditions. Risk assessment identified pipeline leakage and peak-period deficits as high risks, while long-term shortages and regulatory non-compliance constituted extreme risks. The integration of modelling, forecasting, and risk analysis highlights the fragile state of MMA’s water supply system and its vulnerability to future demand pressures. Urgent measures, including desalination to address salinity, capacity expansion, leakage reduction, and strategic demand management, are recommended to strengthen resilience, ensure compliance with ICAO/WHO standards, and secure sustainable water supply for aviation operations.