Interactive Dynamics of Bullet Comments in Agricultural Livestreaming: A Dual-Path Analysis of Conversion Efficiency in Rural China

Live-streaming e-commerce is becoming a pivotal tool for promoting agricultural products and supporting rural revitalization in China. This study investigates the determinants of conversion efficiency-measured as Goods per Mille Views (GPM)-through a large-scale analysis of 70,650 agricultural livestream sessions on Douyin. Employing two-way fixed-effects panel regression and Bootstrap-based structural equation modeling (SEM), we examine how Retention Rate, Sales Amount, and Sales per Minute influence GPM. A key contribution of this study is the identification of a dual-path moderating effect of bullet comments (BulletCount), which can simultaneously enhance and hinder conversion depending on the context of viewer engagement. SEM results further uncover four significant mediation mechanisms-via Traffic Ratio, Retention Rate, Sales Amount, and Sales per Minute-through which bullet comments affect GPM. These findings offer new insights into the cognitive and social dynamics of interactive livestreaming. The study provides practical implications for platform designers, streamers, and policymakers seeking to improve conversion outcomes and foster sustainable rural e-commerce ecosystems.