This study demonstrates the nonlinear impact of geopolitical risk on energy transition minerals, suggesting key policy strategies for diversification and resilience.
This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk on energy transition minerals—lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, rare earth, and graphite—using Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) and quantile regression (QR) over the period 1961-2020. Results reveal heterogeneous and nonlinear effects, with significant market disruptions for cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and graphite. Policy recommendations emphasize supply diversification, domestic capacity expansion, and risk-sensitive trade strategies to enhance market resilience and secure critical mineral supply chains.
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Özkan et al. (2025) studied this question.
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