Determining the size of the motor vehicle reserve fleet

Introduction . The balanced (sustainable) development of road transport, coordinated with other elements of urban infrastructure, the correspondence of transport demand and supply, the formation and implementation of effective strategies for the development of public road transport is the most important modern problem. Within the framework of this direction, one of the urgent unsolved tasks so far is to determine the number of reserve fleet of the rolling stock for reliable transport services. In practice, the shortage of rolling stock is often the reason for the low coordination of the logistics process, disruptions in the work of road carriers, fines for non-performance of the contractual obligations to the customer and for violations of the law. Materials and methods . To ensure the necessary reliability of the transport system, it is necessary to determine the required level of rolling stock reserve. The work presents a method for solving the stated problem, based on the apparatus of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. The methodology allows calculating the safety size of the rolling stock reserve, which ensures the specified reliability of the transport system, which is established taking into account factors determined by the specific conditions of the transportation process. Discussion and conclusion . The practical effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by the example of solving the problem for the conditions of a real transport organization. The technique has been successfully tested and is currently being applied in practice.