The Welfare Consequences of Political Rivalry in a Polarized Era

Affective polarization—interpersonal animus between political rivals—is a growing global concern. Existing research shows it affects a-political domains, influencing residential, relational, financial, and labor market choices. This study explores whether political rivalry in a polarized era spills over to another non-partisan domain: welfare provision. We examine whether political biases shape perceptions of welfare deservingness, typically guided by effort cues and political ideology. Using the Israeli 2023 judicial reform crisis as a case study, we conducted a pre-registered experiment among Israelis, manipulating the effort cues and political affiliations of hypothetical welfare recipients. We find that while motivated recipients are generally seen as more deserving, political biases significantly skew these evaluations. Out-group recipients are viewed as less deserving than in-group members. Additionally, motivation bears a higher reward for recipients absent political cues, as compared to both in- and out-group motivated recipients. The study highlights the societal risks of escalating political divisions.