Habitat Suitability and Driving Factors of Cycas panzhihuaensis in the Hengduan Mountains

The Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot, harbor numerous endemic plant species shaped by complex topography and microclimatic variation. However, increasing habitat fragmentation due to human activities threatens narrowly distributed species such as Cycas panzhihuaensis. To investigate its habitat suitability and inform conservation, we applied the MaxEnt model, Geodetector, and Zonation to predict potential distribution, identify key environmental drivers, and delineate priority conservation areas. Our results show that only 18.36% of the region constitutes suitable and highly fragmented habitat, primarily concentrated along the dry–hot valleys of the Jinsha and Yalong Rivers, and it is shrinking while shifting southward and southeastward under climate change. Elevation emerged as the dominant driver (q = 0.45), with strong interaction effects among topographic, climatic, soil, and anthropogenic factors, highlighting the role of environmental synergies in shaping habitat heterogeneity. Priority conservation areas covered 32% of suitable habitat and overlapped only 6.17% with existing protected areas, indicating a spatial conservation gap. These findings emphasize the need to incorporate microhabitat heterogeneity and environmental interactions in conservation planning and support the adoption of micro-reserve strategies to complement existing reserves. Our study provides a practical framework for protecting vulnerable montane species and offers insights into plant distribution dynamics in topographically complex regions.